Are Emerging Markets Robust Enough?

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Are Emerging Markets Robust Enough?

Josephine Shea

Josephine Shea - Director of Emerging Markets and Senior Portfolio Manager

Emerging markets this year have shown some strong returns both in the equity and fixed-income markets; the MSCI Emerging Market Index returned 28% year-to-date, while the USD denominated JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Global (EMBI Global) Index and the local currency JP Morgan Government Bond Index - Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) Global Diversified returned 8.5% and 14.5%, respectively. But how robust are these markets really? News headlines seem to constantly highlight the idiosyncratic risks in emerging markets—President Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, Kim Jong Un in North Korea, ISIS in the Middle East, corruption in Brazil and Russia in Ukraine. Yet, if history is a guide to the future, then the answer is simple: emerging markets will be okay. Even during the worst of the global financial crisis of the last decades, emerging markets as an asset class continued to grow resiliently. We believe that this momentum will continue. However, due to the growth that the asset class has experienced over the past forty years, positive returns are now more dependent than ever on active management through asset allocation and security selection.

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