Bond Market Observations

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Jan 2017 BMO

Standish

Standish - Investment Committee

Now Is The Winter Of Our Discontent

As investment professionals at Standish met for our regular cycle of monthly meetings, we were comforted in knowing that economic and political events unfolded largely as expected in the immediate wake of the US presidential election. Our take on the political economy, as explained in our November Bond Market Observations, continues to be that governing differs from campaigning—and when President-elect Donald Trump takes office on January 20th, he will likely gravitate toward more traditional Republican policies, despite the unconventional rhetoric of his campaign. In short, cutting regulation would encourage private spending and combining a modest infrastructure program with corporate tax reform would provide a partially-funded fiscal impetus. The heavy lifting of overhauling both health care and the personal income tax code would be postponed to preserve political capital and generate forward momentum.

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