Bond Market Observations

Risks Mildly Skewed to the Upside in Second Half of
2015

We believe the balance of risks to global growth is mildly
skewed to the upside in the second half of 2015 as the
positive effects of lower energy prices, improving labor
markets, and easy financial conditions in Developed
Markets (DM) offset the negative effects of lower
commodity prices, structural bottlenecks, and tighter
external financing conditions in Emerging Markets (EM). In
the text that follows, we will discuss our biggest hits and
misses on the global outlook for the first half. Then we will
go into greater detail on why we remain confident about a
reacceleration in global growth the second half and what
opportunities this may present to global investors in the
fixed income markets.

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