Economic and Market Observations: Trump, Trade, Twisters, and Trailer Parks

An urban legend holds that trailer parks in the Midwest attract tornados (allegedly because of their high metal content). This is scientific nonsense, of course, and gets the causation wrong about why there are relatively more newspaper headlines about damage at trailer parks. Twisters hitting relatively more densely packed, flimsily built mobile homes inflict a higher toll than those touching down in the open country or established settlements.

Figuring out the investment landscape is problematic right now because President Trump is the political equivalent of a tornado, striking unpredictably in places that are more or less able to withstand the force. The wind velocity on international trade disputes has picked up, as seen in a news count of articles about the topic touching a quarter-century high (although not achieving the commanding heights reached during the debate on ratifying the North American Free Trade Act, NAFTA).

Shelter from the storm is not equally available across countries for two of the reasons that President Trump presumably believes trade wars are "winnable."

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