Global Macro Views

World GDP growth is expected to show a modest increase in 2016 as developed economies generally continue near current growth levels, emerging Asian countries continue to slow gradually and Latin American commodity exporters along with Russia benefit from positive base effects after a disappointing 2015.  In the developed economies including the US, Europe and Japan, consumer strength supported by improving labor markets and lower energy costs continues to drive growth, particularly in the services sectors.  Despite likely diverging monetary policies in 2016, modest above trend growth should be supported throughout developed economies by ongoing high levels of monetary policy accommodation.  The structural slowing of the Chinese economy continues to dominate the outlook for non-Japan Asia as well as most EM commodity exporters.  While at current commodity price levels, we expect positive base effects to the growth of those countries most negatively impacted, managing the Chinese slowdown presents downside risks to our growth outlooks.


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