Global Macro Views

Global Macro Views - November 2015 - World GDP and Inflation

World GDP growth continues to be driven by diverging and idiosyncratic stories over the medium term with a slight pickup from 3.1% to 3.3% moving into 2016. In the U.S., we see a steady pace of growth, driven primarily by the consumer; while in Europe, external demand may play a larger role as the European Central Bank steps up its accommodative policy, thereby ensuring a lower exchange rate for longer and accommodating upside risks to growth. In China, domestic stimulus only offsets some of the structural slowdown, where negative growth surprises should present themselves again in 2016. Latin American economies are seeing nascent signs of economic stabilization despite tightening monetary policy in order to tamp down on inflation that exceeds slightly many central bank targets. Near, term, however, we see signs of a cyclical economic recovery and evidence that a growth upswing will transpire in some of the economic indicators globally, especially in China and possibly the U.S. However, we don’t expect this to last into 2016, where the structural downtrends are likely to re-emerge again, especially in Asia.

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