Global Macro Views

Global Macro Views - October 2015 - GDP Growth and Inflation Chart

World growth is expected to pick-up 0.3% in 2016, as both emerging and developed economies gain momentum. However, recent international policy and economic considerations – Chinese currency policy and the country’s real economic slowdown – have taken center stage and reverberated around global financial markets. As we move into 2016, there is a distinct theme in our global macroeconomic forecast that points to winners and losers. The winners are tied to those economies posting relatively healthy domestic demand and expansionary domestic policy, including the US and Europe. The losers remain explicitly tied to the global trade and manufacturing cycle, including large Asian economies and smaller countries like Australia. On balance, we’re not expecting a global economic recession, just further price discovery in the economic data as the world economy follows a new structural growth path.

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