LDI - A Statistical and Qualitative Review of Q4 2015 & Outlook for 2016

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LDI - Q4 2015 Review & Outlook

Andrew Catalan, CFA

Andrew Catalan, CFA - Managing Director & Senior Portfolio Manager of the Liability Driven Investing group

Background

Indeed we did get liftoff as the Fed raised rates on December 16th, the first time in over nine years. Whether plan sponsors feel good about the move is debatable as rates further out the curve actually rallied. While markets have focused on the Fed raising “rates”, the reality is the central bank can only indirectly influence rates further out the curve. Currently, investors are pricing in lower rates than the Fed “dots” indicate because inflation is not yet evident. The most relevant factors that drove markets for investors in 2015 were China, sluggish global growth, declining commodity prices, and anticipating the Fed’s first rate move. The returns in long credit and equities, two key asset classes for pension funds, were lackluster. Certain sectors such as Energy and Metals & Mining were more in a state of depression.

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