French Elections Spook Markets

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Investors are on alert to risk involving the French election. It is a medley of scandal, gaffes and general uncertainty that is spooking markets, as polls show candidates Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron neck-and-neck in the first round of one of the most unusual French elections in modern history. French spreads are largely tracking Ms. Le Pen’s odds of securing the presidency.

In a sense, the unease is less about Ms. Le Pen’s winning the race and more so about her opponents’ losing. Francois Fillon remains in the race despite a recent scandal tainting his reputation and sinking his voter favorability. On the other side, Marine Le Pen’s voter support has remained largely stable over time, even weathering such events as BREXIT and the US election. Additionally, Emmanuel Macron’s new candidacy and party presence raises questions as to how well the polls foretell his chances of winning. Uncertainty abounds.

Is it time to worry?

The scenario may be unlikely, but it is not impossible for Marine Le Pen to win this election. In the event that scandals or lack of emotional appeal push voters farther away from her major opponents, low voter turnout could favor her dedicated base and thereby catapult her to victory. Thus, Standish currently assigns an 85% probability of Le Pen losing the election, with our base case being that either Mr. Macron or Mr. Fillon will take the presidency. We will reassess this probability as time goes on and we gather new information, such as data from the first round of elections.

Nevertheless, we consider the 15% alternative, that Le Pen wins the French presidential election. In the wake of her shock win, market volatility would surge. She would take office on June 1st and quickly pursue her populist agenda, despite the fact that parliamentary elections would not take place until the middle of the month. She may first call a European Summit and make nationalistic demands to her European Union (EU) counterparts, but such demands would not likely be well-received. While she has threatened a referendum on EU membership, support from the Parliament would not likely legitimize any such vote. Even so, the threat of EU/Eurozone breakup would be quite real, as the Eurozone’s second largest economy and founding nation could stumble toward FREXIT.

Therefore, a Le Pen victory would likely result in a spike in sovereign credit spreads across much of Europe, as negative sentiment spills over into vulnerable periphery markets.

On the other hand, if Mr. Macron or Mr. Fillon were to win, then we would expect French sovereign spreads to fall roughly 30 bps, as the expectation of economic reform would raise potential output growth. This is our base case. A pro-reform agenda would help France, more so than either Mr. Macron’s or Mr. Fillon’s pro-EU stance would improve things for the periphery. We would expect to see some relief tightening in the periphery, but not to the extent as would be seen in France.

As we move toward April 23rd—the first round of French elections—any spike in spreads is likely to present an opportunity in either France or related markets once the election outcome is announced.

The comments provided herein are a general market overview and do not constitute investment advice, are not predictive of any future market performance, are not provided as a sales or advertising communication, and do not represent an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.  Similarly, this information is not intended to provide specific advice, recommendations or projected returns of any particular product of Standish Mellon Asset Management Company LLC (Standish).  These views are current as of the date of this communication and are subject to rapid change as economic and market conditions dictate. Though these views may be informed by information from publicly available sources that we believe to be accurate, we can make no representation as to the accuracy of such sources nor the completeness of such information.  Please contact Standish for current information about our views of the economy and the markets.  Portfolio composition is subject to change, and past performance is no indication of future performance.
BNY Mellon is one of the world’s leading asset management organizations, encompassing BNY Mellon’s affiliated investment management firms, wealth management services and global distribution companies. BNY Mellon is the corporate brand for The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation. Standish is a registered investment adviser and BNY Mellon subsidiary.

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